In the first three quarters, the overall domestic macro-economy operated well, not only achieving the goal of a soft landing of the economy, but also in the implementation of various policies to continue to maintain a prudent monetary policy and structural adjustment, GDP growth rebounded slightly. The data shows that in August 2017, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and from January to August, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year.
On the whole, the growth rate of production in high-energy-consuming manufacturing industries continues to decline, but high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industries maintain rapid growth rates, and related investment has also accelerated to emerging industries. The growth rate of Shuangchuang Investment continues to increase, and with the industrial transformation and upgrading, China's economy has accelerated the transformation of new and old kinetic energy.
In the chemical industry, by the implementation of specific measures of environmental protection supervision policies, as well as the clearance of backward production capacity, the prosperity of some industries has rebounded, coupled with the obvious increase in demand in emerging areas, especially in the first half of the coal and steel industry due to the industry's production capacity, operating rate and value center of gravity have been continuously revised, corporate profitability has been continuously improved, the first half of the bull market created by black products as the representative, so that the industry has a collective turnaround to win a good situation, coupled with the support of the inventory cycle, the operation of enterprises can be improved.
However, into the traditional peak demand season of the golden nine silver ten chemical industry, the market trend is not satisfactory, due to the growth of domestic demand without obvious bright spots, and the environmental protection policy storm is flat, some industry operating rates gradually rebounded or even at the high level of the past years, but the actual consumption did not show signs of substantial growth, so black products first bear the brunt of the sharp diving market, but the industry operating rate is still at a high level, and the follow-up is likely to enter the destocking cycle again. Therefore, the overheating phenomenon of some industries in the first half of the year will be further adjusted after entering the fourth quarter, and it is not conducive to the clearance of backward production capacity, and it is likely to lead to the failure of the stage of supply-side structural adjustment. Therefore, in the second half of the year, the chemical industry as a whole is in the "cooling" stage, and the inflated bubble generated by various "conceptualized" hype markets will be digested by the market itself.
From the perspective of the external environment, the US balance sheet reduction is expected to continue to strengthen, but the actual economic recovery momentum is still weak, the impact risk on emerging economies still exists, other major foreign trade regions such as Europe are facing an exit monetary easing cycle, coupled with the spread of trade protectionist barriers around the world, which will continue to exert pressure on the domestic and foreign export situation, and the growth rate is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter.
It can be seen that in the second half of the year, the domestic macroeconomic growth rate will continue to be at the bottom of the L-shape, and emerging areas are not enough to support the main proportion of effective demand, the structural imbalance of traditional fields is difficult to effectively reverse in the short term, and the specific industries in the chemical industry as a whole will be in a cooling cycle, which will affect the industrial added value data will likely to be weak. In the absence of new momentum, consumption growth highlights in the case, the chemical industry investment growth rate will continue to decline and is likely to continue negative growth situation, the fourth quarter is expected that the chemical products market center of gravity will explore the bottom support, it is likely to remain led by the black system, and it is expected that the overall destocking cycle is relatively elongated, the expected cyclical decline in the efficiency of enterprises in the industry, and the price bubble and inflated profit space of some industries will return rationally and be effectively compressed.